Occupancy is near a decade high and almost no new supply is coming — the marketing problem changed

Occupancy across the thirty-one primary markets reached 89.9%, the highest since the end of 2015, with independent living at 91.3% and assisted living at 88.4%. Fifteen of the thirty-one markets are at or above 90%, and inventory growth has stayed below 1.0% for a fifth consecutive quarter. A community operating in that market and running a conventional lead-generation programme is buying inquiries into a building with a handful of open units. The constraint has moved from demand to fit, and to the length of a decision that families take months to make.

Fifteen of the thirty-one primary markets are at or above 90% occupancy, and a community at 92% does not have a lead-generation problem.

1. 01

   At high occupancy, more inquiries mostly produce more disappointment

   Generating volume into a community with three open units fills a waiting list with people who were told there was availability. That costs the community reviews and referral relationships, which in this category are the two things that actually compound.

2. 02

   Conversion rises with acuity, so an inquiry is not worth the same everywhere

   Inquiry-to-move-in runs at 6–8% for independent living, 9% for assisted living and 13% for memory care. The same inquiry volume is worth roughly twice as much in memory care as in independent living, and budget and channel choice should follow that rather than following unit counts. Those figures are from 2023 and should be quoted with their date.

3. 03

   Three numbers this model refuses to use

   Cost per move-in, cost per lead and marketing spend per occupied unit have no credible published source in this sector. Any figure circulating for them comes from a single operator's internal reporting. The model instruments all three first-party and states plainly that no benchmark exists to compare them against.

4. 04

   No new supply removes the usual competitive urgency and exposes a different problem

   With inventory growth under 1.0% for a fifth consecutive quarter, the competitor down the road is not the threat. The threat is a family that takes eighteen months to decide and is not contacted between month two and month fourteen. The nurture programme, not the ad account, is where that is won.

5. 05

   The inquirer and the resident are frequently different people

   The adult child researching at eleven at night and the parent who will live there have different questions, different anxieties and different objections. A single content track written for one of them is written against the other.

Senior housing occupancy **89.9%** across the 31 primary markets (20 straight quarters of gains) · **15 of 31 markets ≥90%** · inventory growth below **1.0%** for a fifth consecutive quarter.

The model instruments the decision rather than the click. Every inquiry captures care level, expected timeline and geography at first contact, and is routed by care level rather than by arrival order. Communities at or near capacity in a care level route high-fit inquiries to a genuine waitlist with a defined follow-up rather than losing them to 'no availability'. Nurture runs on a horizon measured in months, with parallel tracks for the adult child and the prospective resident. Tour scheduling is separated from inquiry capture so the two convert independently. Cost per move-in is built first-party from month one, because there is no published figure to check it against.

1. 1

   Weeks 1–3

   Inquiry and occupancy audit

   Inquiry volume and source by care level, current occupancy and availability per level

   Owner: OmniFlow + operator

2. 2

   Weeks 3–6

   Capture and routing

   Care level, timeline and geography captured at first contact; routing by care level

   Owner: OmniFlow

3. 3

   Weeks 5–8

   Waitlist route

   Defined waitlist process with follow-up cadence for high-fit inquiries at full care levels

   Owner: Operator + OmniFlow

4. 4

   Weeks 6–14

   Long-horizon nurture

   Parallel tracks for adult child and prospective resident, measured in months not days

   Owner: OmniFlow

5. 5

   Month 3 onward

   First-party cost per move-in

   Spend joined to move-ins by care level, published internally as the community's own baseline

   Owner: OmniFlow

6. 6

   Month 6

   Review

   Inquiry-to-tour, tour-to-move-in and cost per move-in by care level

   Owner: OmniFlow + operator

The model reports inquiry-to-tour, tour-to-move-in and cost per move-in, all split by care level and never averaged across them. Inquiry-to-move-in is reported against the published 2023 figures with the date visible, because those are the only ones that exist and they predate the current occupancy environment. Cost per move-in is reported with an explicit note that no credible industry benchmark exists for it, so the community's own first two quarters are the only valid comparison. Occupancy is reported alongside marketing performance rather than underneath it, because at these levels the two constrain each other.

Modelled. Inputs: NIC MAP Vision, Senior Housing Occupancy Q2 2026 (31 Primary Markets); Aline, 2023 Annual Sales and Marketing Benchmark Report. Modelled outputs are not a forecast or a guarantee of results. Cited: NIC MAP Vision *Senior Housing Occupancy, Q2 2026*.

Every figure below is published research, not a client result. They are the inputs to the arithmetic above, listed so it can be checked rather than taken on trust. The bracketed number points to the full citation at the end of this page.

These are the surfaces this engagement is run and measured from, shown with representative figures built around the benchmarks cited on this page. Every account we run reports into views like these, and you keep ownership of all of them.

Each figure on this page, the system it is read from, and the definition and window it is measured over.

Not applicable — this is a modelled engagement. Its weakest input is that the inquiry-to-move-in figures date from 2023 and were published before occupancy recovered to current levels; a community converting inquiries in a 90% market is working a different funnel from one converting them at 85%, and the direction of that difference is not obvious. The audit phase replaces them with the community's own conversion by care level before any target is set.

A modelled capability, not a client account. Figures illustrate what the model produces and are labelled as modelled wherever they appear. See all our work

Full citations for everything cited on this page, with the sample and period each study covers, so you can go and read the original.